🔗 Share this article

While election campaign, Donald Trump promised to eschew expensive and often disastrous foreign wars like those in Iraq and Afghanistan. This assurance formed a central component of his non-interventionist “America first” policy. But soon after his inauguration, US forces initiated bombings in Yemen and Iran. Turning to the south, the president threatened to take control of the Panama Canal. Currently, US defense officials is preparing for possible operations against so-called “terrorist” narco-trafficking organizations within the borders of Colombia and Mexico. Of greatest urgent worry is a potential fresh White House attempt to enforce a new government in Venezuela.

Venezuela's Reaction and Rising Strains

Nicolás Maduro, the country's hard-left authoritarian president, claims that this campaign is already begun. He alleges that Washington is waging an “undeclared war” against his country following several deadly attacks against Venezuelan ships in the high seas. The US president last week informed Congress that the United States is involved in hostilities with narco-trafficking groups. He alleges, without proof, that the attacked boats transported illegal narcotics bound for the US – and that the Venezuelan leader bears responsibility. The administration has placed a multimillion-dollar reward for Maduro’s capture.

Regional nations are anxiously watching a significant American armed forces buildup around Venezuela, featuring warships, F-35 fighter jets, a submarine and 2,200 marines. These powerful resources are hardly very useful in anti-drug operations. However they might be deployed offensively, or to support commando operations and airstrikes. Recently, Venezuela alleged Washington of an “illegal incursion” by at least five F-35s. The president states he is preparing emergency powers to “protect our people” in case Venezuela is attacked from the American empire.

Analyzing the Reasons For the Moves

What is Trump up to? Narcotics trafficking is a serious issue – but taking lives on a whim in international waters, while common and hard to hold accountable, remains illegal. Moreover, United Nations reports says the majority of the cocaine reaching the US comes from Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, and is mostly not trafficked through Venezuela. Trump, a former draft-dodger, likes to act the strong leader. Currently, he is seeking to expel Venezuelan migrants, many of whom previously escaped to the US due to economic measures he himself imposed. Experts propose he covets Venezuela’s vast energy and mineral resources.

It’s true that the president and his former national security adviser, hoped to oust Maduro in 2019 in an event Caracas described as a regime change plot. It’s also true, Maduro’s recent electoral win was widely condemned as rigged. Given a free choice, the people would almost certainly vote out him. And, clashing political beliefs are a factor, as well. The leader, unworthy successor to Hugo Chávez’s Bolivarian revolution, is offensive to the president's dominant idea of an American-led western hemisphere, in which the 1823 Monroe doctrine is revived and free-market capitalism functions without restraint.

Lack of Clear Strategy

However given his hapless missteps on other major international matters, the probable reason for the president's behavior is that, typically, he hasn’t got a clue about his actions – in Venezuela or Latin America as a whole. No strategy exists. He throws his weight about, makes impetuous decisions, stokes fear about immigrants and forms policies based on if he approves of foreign counterparts. Previously, with Maduro in trouble, the US president backed down. Now, large-scale military intervention in Venezuela remains unlikely. More probable is a heightened campaign of coercion involving destabilization, penalties, naval attacks, and aerial and special forces operations.

Far from undermining and marginalizing the regime, Trump could bring about the reverse. The president is already exploiting the situation to seize dictatorial “special powers” and rally public opinion behind nationalist appeals for national solidarity. The president's bullying of additional left-leaning Latin American nations – such as Colombia – and overconfident cheerleading for conservative leaders in Argentina and El Salvador – is provoking pushback across the continent, too. Most governments detest the idea of a return to the past era of Yanqui meddling in Washington’s “back yard”.

Latin American Reaction and Diplomatic Setbacks

The administration's attempt to employ punitive tariffs and sanctions to strong-arm Brazil to granting amnesty to its disgraced hard-right president Jair Bolsonaro backfired dramatically last month. Huge crowds demonstrated in Brazilian cities to protect what they perceived as an attack on Brazilian sovereignty and legal principles. The popularity of Bolsonaro’s successor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, soared. Brazil is not, and will never become, anyone’s colony,” he declared. The Brazilian leader effectively told Trump, in effect, to back off. Later, at their meeting at the UN general assembly, the American leader backed off and played nice.

The view of a significant regression in inter-American relations grows inevitably. “His administration sees the region primarily as a danger, associating it with drug trafficking, organised crime and immigration,” a noted expert warned recently. “The US approach has become fundamentally negative, favoring unilateral action and control rather than cooperation,” she added, stating: Latin America is being treated less as an equal partner and rather as a sphere of influence to be controlled in line with American goals.”

Aggressive Advisers and Rising Rhetoric

Trump’s hawkish aides contribute to the issue: especially Stephen Miller, administration deputy chief of staff, and Marco Rubio, a former lawmaker for Florida serving as top diplomat and national security adviser. For Rubio, a long-standing opponent of leftwing rulers in Cuba and Nicaragua, Maduro remains a target. Defending the naval strikes, he declared: “Interdiction doesn’t work. The solution is destroying them … This will continue.” From the chief diplomat, these are strong words.

Future Implications

The president's efforts to revive the position of Latin American neighbourhood policeman, emulating former president Theodore Roosevelt – an interventionist frequent meddler – are regressive, dangerous and self-defeating. In the future, the big winner will most likely be Beijing, an increasingly influential regional actor, investor and leading member of the Brics group of nations. While America burns its bridges across the world, the administration is helping China great again.